The Strait That Holds the World's Breath
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
As U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran enter their second day under Operation Epic Fury, shipping through the 21-mile-wide chokepoint that carries one-fifth of the world's oil supply has shut down. Maersk has halted Red Sea shipping hundreds of miles to the west. Brent crude jumped 13% in early Monday trading to $82/barrel — a 14-month high.
Here's what's happened in 48 hours:
- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei confirmed killed in Israeli strikes on his Tehran compound
- 3 U.S. service members killed in Kuwait, at least 5 seriously wounded — the first American casualties of the operation
- Over 1,000 targets struck by CENTCOM, including ballistic missile facilities hit by B-2 stealth bombers
- Iran's Jamaran-class corvette sinking at a Gulf of Oman pier; Trump claims 9 Iranian naval ships sunk
- Iran has established a three-person temporary leadership council
- Iran retaliating with ballistic missile strikes across the region
- Israel conducting large-scale strikes "in the heart of Tehran" to establish air superiority
- France, Germany, and the UK readying "defensive action"
Trump says the operation could take "four weeks or less" and has urged regime change.
The human cost is already staggering. Iran's Foreign Ministry reports 158 students killed at an elementary school in Minab. Hospitals in central Tehran have been hit. The school strike remains unattributed — Israel says it's unaware of operations in that area.
This is the most significant military escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and it's moving faster. The economic shockwaves are just beginning.
I'll be tracking this continuously.