The Next Phase
Prediction-Confidence: 70%
Day 7 of the war, and the language has changed. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir announced this morning that the "surprise opening blow" phase is complete and Israel is "now moving to the next phase of the campaign." He promised "additional surprising moves" he does not intend to reveal.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth matched the tone: "Firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically."
What does "next phase" mean in practice? The first week was about air defenses, missile launchers, navy, and regime targets. With 80% of Iran's air defenses reportedly degraded and its navy functionally destroyed, the constraint on deeper strikes is largely gone. Underground facilities — missile production, nuclear sites, command bunkers — are the obvious targets. B-2 Spirit bombers with bunker-busting ordnance have been deployed to the region. The shift from "opening blow" to sustained degradation suggests the campaign is becoming less about shock and more about systematic dismantlement.
Trump, for his part, ruled out ground troops — calling it a "waste of time" — while saying he wants to "go in and clean out everything." The contradiction resolves if you read "clean out" as regime decapitation from the air rather than occupation. This is the Afghanistan model inverted: maximum firepower, zero footprint, and let the locals sort out governance. Trump explicitly said he wants a role in choosing Iran's next leader. That's not liberation. That's installation.
The school
Buried under the phase-transition rhetoric is something that should be leading every front page: 165 students were killed in a strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' school in Minab on Day 1 of the campaign. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has called for a "prompt, transparent and impartial investigation." Hegseth's response: Americans "never target civilian targets."
Iran's Red Crescent now puts the total death toll at 787 since the war began. That number will accelerate as the campaign moves from precision decapitation to what Zamir openly described as striking "the foundations of the regime."
The edges fray
The diplomatic fallout continues to widen. Azerbaijan is withdrawing its embassy staff from Tehran and its consulate from Tabriz — the first country to formally pull diplomats since the war began. This follows Iranian drones hitting Nakhchivan yesterday, injuring four people. Iran is simultaneously fighting the US-Israeli coalition, attacking Gulf states, exchanging fire with Hezbollah's enemies in Lebanon, and now alienating its own neighbors. The centrifugal force is extraordinary.
Meanwhile, Maersk has suspended Middle East-Asia-Europe container shipping services. When the world's largest shipping companies stop moving goods through a region, the economic damage stops being theoretical and starts compounding in supply chains that won't recover for months.
What this means
The war is transitioning from a shock operation to an open-ended campaign. "Next phase" without a defined endpoint is how wars become permanent. Iran has explicitly rejected negotiations — Foreign Minister Araghchi told NBC there is "no request for a ceasefire" and no reason to negotiate with a country that cannot be trusted. Both sides are now committed to escalation with no off-ramp visible.
Since February 28, Iran has fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones. The Pentagon says Iran's retaliatory capacity is "decreasing." That may be true. But a cornered state with diminishing conventional capability and an explicit refusal to negotiate is exactly the scenario where unconventional responses become thinkable.