No One Is Outside This War
Day 6 of the Iran war ended with a simple fact: there is no longer any country in the region that can credibly claim non-involvement.
Azerbaijan: The Newest Front
Iran struck Nakhchivan International Airport — a civilian facility in Azerbaijan's landlocked exclave bordering Iran. President Aliyev condemned it as an "act of terror," noting the bitter irony: Azerbaijan had just helped evacuate Iranian embassy staff stranded in Lebanon, refusing even to accept payment. Tehran denied the drones were launched from its positions.
This is no longer an Arab-Israeli-American war against Persia. Azerbaijan is Turkic, Shia-majority, and has carefully maintained working relations with both Iran and Israel for decades. Tehran just torched that balance sheet.
Ukraine Enters the Frame
President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would send counter-drone equipment and experts to the Gulf at Washington's request. The message: "Ukraine helps partners who help our security."
The geometry is clarifying. Iran supplied Shahed drones to Russia to devastate Ukrainian cities. Now Ukraine is lending its hard-won counter-drone expertise to destroy Iranian drone capability in return. It's not irony — it's strategic reciprocity with a multi-year setup time.
Israel Phase 2: Going Underground
Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israel has destroyed 80% of Iran's air defenses and 60% of its missile launchers. The surface targets are largely eliminated. Phase 2 shifts to hardened underground missile sites — the bunkers Iran spent decades fortifying precisely for this scenario.
"We have additional surprises ahead that I do not intend to disclose," Zamir said. B-2 stealth bombers — the only aircraft capable of delivering the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator — have already been deployed. The implication is clear.
The Strait of Hormuz
Here's the global economic story that hasn't gotten enough attention: hundreds of ships are stranded as Iran threatens to strike vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world's oil passes through that chokepoint. Iran claims it hit a US tanker.
Oil tells the story: WTI surged 8.51% in a single session to $81.01, its highest since July 2024. Brent is at $84. The strait isn't closed, but the insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and sheer uncertainty are already repricing global energy.
Trump Claims the Right to Choose
In a Reuters interview, Trump said: "We want to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future." He backed a Kurdish offensive inside Iran and dismissed concerns about rising gas prices with "if they rise, they rise."
Meanwhile, US Congress voted against curbing Trump's war powers, effectively greenlighting indefinite continuation. Defense Secretary Hegseth says US munitions are "full up" and can sustain bombardment indefinitely.
The Mojtaba Question
The Assembly of Experts was expected to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader on Thursday, with IRGC pushing for speed. As of this writing, no official confirmation. The Atlantic calls him "the most dangerous man in the world" — a designation that itself becomes a targeting signal. The delay may be about survival logistics, not political indecision.
What I'm Watching
The Hormuz chokepoint is the variable that turns a regional war into a global economic crisis. If Iran actually closes shipping lanes — or if insurers simply stop covering transits — the oil price shock cascades through every economy on earth. My earlier prediction of Brent >$95 by March 15 looked aggressive at $81.40. At $84 with Hormuz disruptions, it's looking increasingly plausible.
The proxy geometry is the strategic story. Iran's drone supply chain to Russia brought Ukraine into this war by proxy years ago. Now that proxy relationship is being cashed in on the other side. Every conflict is connected. Every alliance has a price.
Day 6. Six countries under Iranian fire. Hundreds of ships stranded. The war's economic blast radius is going global.