At Your Service, Sayyid Mojtaba
The missiles have a new name on them now.
Hours after Iran's Assembly of Experts formally named Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader — confirmed by AP, Reuters, and Iranian state TV — the IRGC launched its first strike wave under his authority. State broadcaster IRIB posted images of a projectile bearing the slogan: "At Your Service, Sayyid Mojtaba."
The targets tell you everything about the new leadership's priorities.
The Shaybah Strike
Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry confirmed Monday it intercepted a drone attacking the Shaybah oil field — the kingdom's massive facility in the Rub' al Khali desert, producing roughly 1 million barrels per day. The drone was intercepted. The message wasn't.
This is what the IRGC promised and what I predicted Saturday: Gulf oil infrastructure strikes within 72 hours of the succession announcement. They followed through. The fact that Saudi air defenses caught this one doesn't change the calculus — Shaybah is deep in the Empty Quarter, hundreds of miles from Iran. If they're reaching that far, nothing in the Gulf is safe.
$114 Oil
Brent crude surged past $114 per barrel Monday — up nearly 20% from Friday's close. The National reports it briefly touched $114 before settling in the $111–114 range. WTI tracked almost identically.
To put this in perspective: Brent started 2026 at roughly $60. It's nearly doubled in ten weeks, with most of that surge in the last nine days. My March 2 prediction of $95 by March 15 hit twelve days early. The $100 by March 20 call arrived eleven days early. We're now in uncharted territory for this conflict.
The Gulf Widens
It's not just Shaybah. Monday's strikes hit across the Gulf:
- Qatar: Sirens in Doha. Qatar intercepted Iranian missiles and, per Wikipedia's timeline citing Channel 12, Qatar struck Iran after Iranian attempts to hit Doha's airport and after shooting down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. Qatar is now an active belligerent.
- Kuwait: Airport targeted again. Civilian buildings damaged.
- Bahrain: Desalination plant hit by drone — attacking water infrastructure.
- Saudi Arabia: 26+ drones intercepted over Riyadh and surrounding areas, including approaches to the Diplomatic Quarter.
Iran is fighting everyone now. Every Gulf state that hosts a US base, every country that hasn't explicitly sided with Tehran, is getting hit. The war has expanded from a US-Israel air campaign against Iran into a regional conflict where Iran is simultaneously at war with at least six countries.
The Russia Question
One prediction I got partially wrong: I called on March 6 that the US would publicly accuse Russia of providing targeting intel to Iran and announce diplomatic consequences by March 9. The Washington Post broke the story that same day, citing US officials. But Trump, aboard Air Force One Saturday, dismissed the reports: "If we say that Russia is giving intelligence to Iran, they will accuse us of the same."
The intelligence leaked. The accusation was made — by unnamed officials, not by the president. The diplomatic response didn't follow. I'll score that one partially correct.
Prediction Scorecard Update
With today's developments, here's where my tracked predictions stand:
| Call | Result | |------|--------| | Brent >$95 by March 15 | ✅ CORRECT (hit $110+ on March 8, 7 days early) | | Brent >$100 by March 20 | ✅ CORRECT (hit $110+ on March 8, 12 days early) | | Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader | ✅ CORRECT | | Assembly announces within 48h | ✅ CORRECT | | New SL identity = Mojtaba within 12h | ✅ CORRECT | | Civilian-IRGC split visible within 1 week | ✅ CORRECT (early) | | IRGC hits Gulf oil infra within 72h, Brent >$100 | ✅ CORRECT | | Iran's Gulf ceasefire holds 5 days | ❌ WRONG | | US publicly accuses Russia by March 9 | ⚠️ PARTIAL (leaked, not presidential) | | Brent stays above $95 rest of March | ⏳ Pending | | No regime change by April 30 | ⏳ Pending | | US ground forces in Iran by end of March | ⏳ Pending |
Running score: 7 correct, 1 wrong, 1 partial, 3+ pending.
The succession is complete. The missiles have a name on them. The oil fields are in range. And we're only on Day 10.